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    央行维持利率不变超量续作7000亿元MLF不是进一步宽松信号

    2020-08-25 0条评论

    央[yang]行[xing]维[wei]持[chi]利[li]率[lv]不[bu]变[bian]超[chao]量[liang]续[xu]作[zuo]7000亿[yi]元[yuan]MLF不[bu]是[shi]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]宽[kuan]松[song]信[xin]号[hao]

    杜[du]坤[kun]维[wei]

    杜[du]坤[kun]维[wei]财[cai]经[jing]

    今[jin]天[tian] 货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]宽[kuan]松[song]度[du]与[yu]资[zi]产[chan]价[jia]格[ge]和[he]实[shi]体[ti]经[jing]济[ji]都[du]存[cun]在[zai]很[hen]大[da]的[de]关[guan]系[xi],因[yin]此[ci]每[mei]一[yi]个[ge]财[cai]经[jing]人[ren]都[du]关[guan]注[zhu]央[yang]行[xing]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]动[dong]向[xiang],并[bing]寻[xun]找[zhao]未[wei]来[lai]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]转[zhuan]变[bian]信[xin]号[hao]。接[jie]下[xia]来[lai]为[wei]大[da]家[jia]介[jie]绍[shao]"[钱[qian]多[duo]多[duo]配[pei]资[zi]]解[jie]释[shi]央[yang]行[xing]维[wei]持[chi]利[li]率[lv]不[bu]变[bian]超[chao]量[liang]续[xu]作[zuo]7000亿[yi]元[yuan]MLF不[bu]是[shi]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]宽[kuan]松[song]信[xin]号[hao]"不[bu]懂[dong]的[de]就[jiu]来[lai]了[liao]解[jie]一[yi]下[xia]吧[ba]
    央[yang]行[xing]维[wei]持[chi]利[li]率[lv]不[bu]变[bian]超[chao]量[liang]续[xu]作[zuo]7000亿[yi]元[yuan]MLF不[bu]是[shi]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]宽[kuan]松[song]信[xin]号[hao]

    8月[yue]17日[ri],央[yang]行[xing]公[gong]告[gao]称[chen],人[ren]民[min]银[yin]行[xing]开[kai]展[zhan]7000亿[yi]元[yuan]中[zhong]期[qi]借[jie]贷[dai]便[bian]利[li](MLF)操[cao]作[zuo],此[ci]次[ci]MLF操[cao]作[zuo]是[shi]对[dui]本[ben]月[yue]两[liang]笔[bi]MLF到[dao]期[qi]的[de]一[yi]次[ci]性[xing]续[xu]做[zuo],充[chong]分[fen]满[man]足[zu]了[liao]金[jin]融[rong]机[ji]构[gou]需[xu]求[qiu],同[tong]时[shi],开[kai]展[zhan]500亿[yi]元[yuan]逆[ni]回[hui]购[gou]操[cao]作[zuo]。逆[ni]回[hui]购[gou]我[wo]们[men]可[ke]以[yi]忽[hu]略[lue],但[dan]MLF释[shi]放[fang]的[de]一[yi]些[xie]信[xin]号[hao]值[zhi]得[de]重[zhong]视[shi],一[yi]个[ge]是[shi]8月[yue]15日[ri]MLF到[dao]期[qi]4000亿[yi](顺[shun]延[yan]至[zhi]8月[yue]17日[ri]),8月[yue]26日[ri]MLF到[dao]期[qi]1500亿[yi],这[zhe]意[yi]味[wei]着[zhou]此[ci]次[ci]MLF超[chao]额[e]续[xu]做[zuo],向[xiang]市[shi]场[chang]注[zhu]入[ru]了[liao]1500亿[yi]元[yuan]流[liu]动[dong]性[xing]资[zi]金[jin],其[qi]次[ci]是[shi]本[ben]次[ci]MLF利[li]率[lv]为[wei]2.95%,持[chi]平[ping]于[yu]上[shang]次[ci],没[mei]有[you]出[chu]现[xian]利[li]率[lv]下[xia]行[xing],资[zi]本[ben]市[shi]场[chang]认[ren]为[wei]是[shi]流[liu]动[dong]性[xing]宽[kuan]松[song]信[xin]号[hao]再[zai]现[xian],投[tou]资[zi]者[zhe]开[kai]始[shi]狂[kuang]欢[huan],大[da]金[jin]融[rong]涨[zhang]幅[fu]居[ji]前[qian]带[dai]动[dong]沪[hu]深[shen]股[gu]市[shi]大[da]涨[zhang]。

    作[zuo]为[wei]投[tou]资[zi]者[zhe],我[wo]认[ren]为[wei]市[shi]场[chang]太[tai]过[guo]乐[le]观[guan],很[hen]有[you]可[ke]能[nen]误[wu]会[hui]了[liao]央[yang]行[xing]用[yong]意[yi],这[zhe]不[bu]是[shi]货[huo]币[bi]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]宽[kuan]松[song]信[xin]号[hao],而[er]是[shi]从[cong]春[chun]节[jie]以[yi]后[hou]的[de]宽[kuan]松[song]回[hui]归[gui]到[dao]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]的[de]适[shi]度[du]收[shou]紧[jin]。

    MLF增[zeng]量[liang]续[xu]作[zuo],向[xiang]市[shi]场[chang]注[zhu]入[ru]1500亿[yi]元[yuan],不[bu]是[shi]货[huo]币[bi]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]宽[kuan]松[song]的[de]信[xin]号[hao],只[zhi]不[bu]过[guo]是[shi]8月[yue]份[fen]发[fa]行[xing]的[de]债[zhai]券[quan]比[bi]较[jiao]多[duo],截[jie]至[zhi]8月[yue]14日[ri],8月[yue]地[di]方[fang]债[zhai]发[fa]行[xing]规[gui]模[mo]已[yi]经[jing]达[da]到[dao]6119.31亿[yi],目[mu]前[qian]已[yi]披[pi]露[lu]发[fa]行[xing]计[ji]划[hua]尚[shang]未[wei]发[fa]行[xing]规[gui]模[mo]为[wei]1515.96亿[yi],市[shi]场[chang]资[zi]金[jin]面[mian]可[ke]能[nen]比[bi]较[jiao]紧[jin]张[zhang],央[yang]行[xing]出[chu]于[yu]稳[wen]定[ding]资[zi]金[jin]角[jiao]度[du]释[shi]放[fang]1500亿[yi]元[yuan]资[zi]金[jin],央[yang]行[xing]不[bu]是[shi]采[cai]用[yong]降[jiang]准[zhun]方[fang]式[shi]补[bu]充[chong]流[liu]动[dong]性[xing],而[er]是[shi]采[cai]用[yong]MLF方[fang]式[shi]注[zhu]入[ru]流[liu]动[dong]性[xing],央[yang]行[xing]货[huo]币[bi]宽[kuan]松[song]政[zheng]策[ce]可[ke]能[nen]更[geng]加[jia]谨[jin]慎[shen]。

    重[zhong]要[yao]会[hui]议[yi]再[zai]度[du]指[zhi]出[chu]:“保[bao]持[chi]流[liu]动[dong]性[xing]合[he]理[li]充[chong]裕[yu]但[dan]不[bu]搞[gao]大[da]水[shui]漫[man]灌[guan],有[you]效[xiao]发[fa]挥[hui]结[jie]构[gou]性[xing]直[zhi]达[da]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]工[gong]具[ju]精[jing]准[zhun]滴[di]灌[guan]作[zuo]用[yong],确[que]保[bao]新[xin]增[zeng]融[rong]资[zi]重[zhong]点[dian]流[liu]向[xiang]实[shi]体[ti]经[jing]济[ji]特[te]别[bie]是[shi]小[xiao]微[wei]企[qi]业[ye]。”发[fa]改[gai]委[wei]也[ye]有[you]类[lei]似[si]的[de]说[shuo]法[fa]:“严[yan]防[fang]地[di]方[fang]政[zheng]府[fu]隐[yin]形[xing]债[zhai]务[wu]风[feng]险[xian]、严[yan]防[fang]“大[da]水[shui]漫[man]灌[guan]””,易[yi]纲[gang]表[biao]示[shi],货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]要[yao]更[geng]加[jia]灵[ling]活[huo]适[shi]度[du]、精[jing]准[zhun]导[dao]向[xiang],综[zong]合[he]运[yun]用[yong]多[duo]种[zhong]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]工[gong]具[ju],引[yin]导[dao]M2和[he]社[she]会[hui]融[rong]资[zi]规[gui]模[mo]增[zeng]速[su]明[ming]显[xian]高[gao]于[yu]去[qu]年[nian],同[tong]时[shi]注[zhu]意[yi]把[ba]握[wo]好[hao]节[jie]奏[zou]、优[you]化[hua]结[jie]构[gou],促[chun]进[jin]普[pu]惠[hui]型[xing]小[xiao]微[wei]企[qi]业[ye]贷[dai]款[kuan]和[he]制[zhi]造[zao]业[ye]中[zhong]长[chang]期[qi]贷[dai]款[kuan]合[he]理[li]增[zeng]长[chang]。

    因[yin]此[ci]后[hou]续[xu]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]全[quan]面[mian]降[jiang]准[zhun]概[gai]率[lv]已[yi]经[jing]大[da]大[da]降[jiang]低[di],流[liu]动[dong]性[xing]投[tou]放[fang]可[ke]能[nen]会[hui]更[geng]加[jia]精[jing]准[zhun],采[cai]用[yong]直[zhi]达[da]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]工[gong]具[ju]精[jing]准[zhun]扶[fu]持[chi]某[mou]些[xie]行[xing]业[ye]和[he]企[qi]业[ye],毕[bi]竟[jing]降[jiang]准[zhun]释[shi]放[fang]的[de]流[liu]动[dong]性[xing]很[hen]难[nan]控[kong]制[zhi],有[you]可[ke]能[nen]通[tong]过[guo]各[ge]种[zhong]渠[qu]道[dao]流[liu]进[jin]楼[lou]市[shi],刺[ci]激[ji]楼[lou]价[jia]上[shang]涨[zhang],催[cui]生[sheng]资[zi]产[chan]泡[pao]沫[mo]。

    央[yang]行[xing]一[yi]直[zhi]通[tong]过[guo]MLF利[li]率[lv]下[xia]降[jiang]引[yin]导[dao]LPR利[li]率[lv]下[xia]降[jiang],春[chun]节[jie]以[yi]后[hou],央[yang]行[xing]两[liang]次[ci]下[xia]调[diao]MLF资[zi]金[jin]利[li]率[lv]30个[ge]基[ji]点[dian],引[yin]导[dao]一[yi]年[nian]期[qi]LPR利[li]率[lv]下[xia]行[xing]30个[ge]基[ji]点[dian],5年[nian]起[qi]LPR利[li]率[lv]下[xia]行[xing]15个[ge]基[ji]点[dian],市[shi]场[chang]一[yi]直[zhi]把[ba]MLF利[li]率[lv]变[bian]动[dong]作[zuo]为[wei]LPR利[li]率[lv]变[bian]动[dong]的[de]信[xin]号[hao],央[yang]行[xing]最[zui]新[xin]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]执[zhi]行[xing]报[bao]告[gao]指[zhi]出[chu],MLF提[ti]供[gong]的[de]资[zi]金[jin]在[zai]银[yin]行[xing]负[fu]债[zhai]中[zhong]占[zhan]比[bi]虽[sui]然[ran]不[bu]高[gao],但[dan]对[dui]市[shi]场[chang]利[li]率[lv]起[qi]决[jue]定[ding]性[xing]作[zuo]用[yong]的[de]不[bu]是[shi]总[zong]量[钱多多配资liang]而[er]是[shi]边[bian]际[ji]量[liang],MLF操[cao]作[zuo]利[li]率[lv]作[zuo]为[wei]中[zhong]期[qi]政[zheng]策[ce]利[li]率[lv],是[shi]中[zhong]期[qi]市[shi]场[chang]利[li]率[lv]运[yun]行[xing]的[de]中[zhong]枢[shu],国[guo]债[zhai]收[shou]益[yi]率[lv]曲[qu]线[xian]、同[tong]业[ye]存[cun]单[dan]等[deng]市[shi]场[chang]利[li]率[lv]围[wei]绕[rao]中[zhong]期[qi]借[jie]贷[dai]便[bian]利[li]利[li]率[lv]波[bo]动[dong],所[suo]以[yi]未[wei]来[lai]央[yang]行[xing]通[tong]过[guo]MLF利[li]率[lv]变[bian]动[dong]引[yin]导[dao]LPR利[li]率[lv]变[bian]动[dong]的[de]方[fang]式[shi]会[hui]弱[ruo]化[hua],而[er]是[shi]通[tong]过[guo]加[jia]点[dian]方[fang]式[shi]变[bian]动[dong]引[yin]导[dao]贷[dai]款[kuan]利[li]率[lv]变[bian]动[dong],即[ji]使[shi]MLF利[li]率[lv]不[bu]变[bian]动[dong],如[ru]果[guo]经[jing]济[ji]真[zhen]的[de]有[you]需[xu]要[yao],LPR利[li]率[lv]也[ye]可[ke]能[nen]变[bian]动[dong]。

    从[cong]另[ling]一[yi]个[ge]角[jiao]度[du]看[kan],中[zhong]报[bao]银[yin]行[xing]业[ye]业[ye]绩[ji]增[zeng]速[su]出[chu]现[xian]明[ming]显[xian]下[xia]滑[hua],上[shang]半[ban]年[nian]商[shang]业[ye]银[yin]行[xing]累[lei]计[ji]实[shi]现[xian]净[jing]利[li]润[run]1.0万[wan]亿[yi]元[yuan],同[tong]比[bi]下[xia]降[jiang]9.4%,平[ping]均[jun]资[zi]本[ben]利[li]润[run]率[lv]为[wei]10.35%;平[ping]均[jun]资[zi]产[chan]利[li]润[run]率[lv]为[wei]0.83%,较[jiao]上[shang]季[ji]末[mo]下[xia]降[jiang]0.15个[ge]百[bai]分[fen]点[dian],继[ji]续[xu]通[tong]过[guo]MLF利[li]率[lv]引[yin]导[dao]LPR利[li]率[lv]下[xia]滑[hua]存[cun]在[zai]一[yi]些[xie]隐[yin]忧[you],那[na]就[jiu]是[shi]银[yin]行[xing]净[jing]息[xi]差[cha]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]收[shou]窄[zhai],银[yin]行[xing]盈[ying]利[li]能[nen]力[li]将[jiang]进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]下[xia]滑[hua],这[zhe]不[bu]利[li]于[yu]银[yin]行[xing]通[tong]过[guo]利[li]润[run]留[liu]存[cun]补[bu]充[chong]一[yi]级[ji]核[he]心[xin]资[zi]本[ben],利[li]用[yong]利[li]润[run]核[he]销[xiao]不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan]。

    从[cong]银[yin]行[xing]二[er]季[ji]度[du]经[jing]营[ying]数[shu]据[ju]看[kan],不[bu]仅[jin]仅[jin]是[shi]利[li]润[run]增[zeng]速[su]下[xia]滑[hua],其[qi]他[ta]经[jing]营[ying]指[zhi]标[biao]也[ye]出[chu]现[xian]恶[e]化[hua],截[jie]至[zhi]二[er]季[ji]度[du]末[mo],商[shang]业[ye]银[yin]行[xing]不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan]余[yu]额[e]2.74万[wan]亿[yi]元[yuan],较[jiao]上[shang]季[ji]末[mo]增[zeng]加[jia]1243亿[yi]元[yuan];商[shang]业[ye]银[yin]行[xing]不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan]率[lv]1.94%,较[jiao]上[shang]季[ji]末[mo]增[zeng]加[jia]0.03个[ge]百[bai]分[fen]点[dian];拨[bo]备[bei]覆[fu]盖[gai]率[lv]为[wei]182.4%,较[jiao]上[shang]季[ji]末[mo]下[xia]降[jiang]0.80个[ge]百[bai]分[fen]点[dian]。银[yin]行[xing]不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan]有[you]一[yi]个[ge]滞[zhi]后[hou]性[xing],未[wei]来[lai]有[you]相[xiang]当[dang]规[gui]模[mo]贷[dai]款[kuan]的[de]风[feng]险[xian]会[hui]延[yan]后[hou]暴[bao]露[lu],未[wei]来[lai]不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan]上[shang]升[sheng]压[ya]力[li]较[jiao]大[da],银[yin]行[xing]需[xu]要[yao]加[jia]大[da]不[bu]良[liang]资[zi]产[chan]核[he]销[xiao]力[li]度[du],有[you]关[guan]官[guan]员[yuan]指[zhi]出[chu]:“预[yu]计[ji]今[jin]年[nian]全[quan]年[nian]银[yin]行[xing]业[ye]将[jiang]处[chu]置[zhi]不[bu]良[liang]贷[dai]款[kuan]3.4万[wan]亿[yi]元[yuan],比[bi]去[qu]年[nian]的[de]2.3万[wan]亿[yi]元[yuan]加[jia]大[da]了[liao]力[li]度[du],明[ming]年[nian]的[de]处[chu]置[zhi]力[li]度[du]会[hui]更[geng]大[da],因[yin]为[wei]很[hen]多[duo]贷[dai]款[kuan]延[yan]期[qi]了[liao],一[yi]些[xie]问[wen]题[ti]明[ming]年[nian]才[cai]会[hui]暴[bao]露[lu]出[chu]来[lai]。”这[zhe]需[xu]要[yao]银[yin]行[xing]备[bei]足[zu]资[zi]本[ben],这[zhe]就[jiu]需[xu]要[yao]银[yin]行[xing]保[bao]持[chi]利[li]润[run]合[he]理[li]增[zeng]长[chang],没[mei]有[you]利[li]润[run]合[he]理[li]增[zeng]长[chang],如[ru]何[he]拿[na]利[li]润[run]核[he]销[xiao]处[chu]置[zhi]不[bu]良[liang]资[zi]产[chan]。

    因[yin]此[ci]短[duan]期[qi]看[kan],不[bu]适[shi]宜[yi]通[tong]过[guo]MLF利[li]率[lv]下[xia]降[jiang],引[yin]导[dao]LPR利[li]率[lv]下[xia]行[xing],进[jin]一[yi]步[bu]压[ya]缩[suo]银[yin]行[xing]净[jing]息[xi]差[cha],带[dai]来[lai]更[geng]多[duo]的[de]银[yin]行[xing]利[li]润[run]下[xia]滑[hua],需[xu]要[yao]保[bao]证[zheng]银[yin]行[xing]净[jing]息[xi]差[cha]稳[wen]定[ding],保[bao]证[zheng]银[yin]行[xing]利[li]润[run],以[yi]便[bian]未[wei]来[lai]核[he]销[xiao]更[geng]多[duo]不[bu]良[liang]资[zi]产[chan]。

    不[bu]是[shi]利[li]率[lv]越[yue]低[di]越[yue]好[hao],零[ling]利[li]率[lv]更[geng]是[shi]遭[zao]遇[yu]财[cai]经[jing]人[ren]士[shi]的[de]炮[pao]轰[hong],央[yang]行[xing]之[zhi]所[suo]以[yi]强[qiang]调[diao]不[bu]会[hui]大[da]水[shui]漫[man]灌[guan],在[zai]于[yu]流[liu]动[dong]性[xing]泛[fan]滥[lan]会[hui]带[dai]来[lai]资[zi]产[chan]泡[pao]沫[mo]尤[you]其[qi]是[shi]地[di]产[chan]价[jia]格[ge]上[shang]涨[zhang],不[bu]利[li]于[yu]房[fang]住[zhu]不[bu]炒[chao]的[de]政[zheng]策[ce]调[diao]控[kong],不[bu]会[hui]允[yun]许[xu]资[zi]金[jin]市[shi]场[chang]的[de]利[li]率[lv]水[shui]平[ping]长[chang]期[qi]持[chi]续[xu]过[guo]低[di],低[di]利[li]率[lv]会[hui]导[dao]致[zhi]资[zi]源[yuan]扭[niu]曲[qu],资[zi]金[jin]空[kong]转[zhuan]套[tao]利[li],另[ling]一[yi]方[fang]面[mian]会[hui]催[cui]生[sheng]巨[ju]大[da]的[de]地[di]产[chan]泡[pao]沫[mo],上[shang]半[ban]年[nian]央[yang]行[xing钱多多配资]降[jiang]准[zhun]释[shi]放[fang]1.5万[wan]亿[yi]元[yuan]资[zi]金[jin]和[he]两[liang]次[ci]下[xia]调[diao]MLF利[li]率[lv]以[yi]后[hou],某[mou]些[xie]一[yi]线[xian]城[cheng]市[shi]出[chu]现[xian]楼[lou]市[shi]抢[qiang]购[gou]狂[kuang]潮[chao],房[fang]价[jia]出[chu]现[xian]短[duan]期[qi]大[da]涨[zhang],引[yin]发[fa]各[ge]种[zhong]议[yi]论[lun],房[fang]地[di]产[chan]价[jia]格[ge]上[shang]涨[zhang]挤[ji]压[ya]居[ji]民[min]消[xiao]费[fei]更[geng]是[shi]带[dai]来[lai]制[zhi]造[zao]业[ye]成[cheng]本[ben]推[tui]高[gao]和[he]经[jing]济[ji]转[zhuan]型[xing]难[nan]度[du],自[zi]然[ran]不[bu]利[li]于[yu]内[na]循[xun]环[huan]经[jing]济[ji],货[huo]币[bi]宽[ku钱多多配资an]松[song]副[fu]作[zuo]用[yong]充[chong]分[fen]显[xian]现[xian]。但[dan]实[shi]体[ti]经[jing]济[ji]恢[hui]复[fu]增[zeng]长[chang]缓[huan]慢[man],还[huai]是[shi]需[xu]要[yao]央[yang]行[xing]适[shi]度[du]宽[kuan]松[song]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce],央[yang]行[xing]可[ke]以[yi]通[tong]过[guo]直[zhi]达[da]的[de]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]工[gong]具[ju]调[diao]结[jie]构[gou],通[tong]过[guo]运[yun]用[yong]结[jie]构[gou]性[xing]货[huo]币[bi]政[zheng]策[ce]工[gong]具[ju]降[jiang]低[di]实[shi]体[ti]经[jing]济[ji]长[chang]期[qi]资[zi]金[jin]利[li]率[lv],如[ru]央[yang]行[xing]再[zai]贷[dai]款[kuan]和[he]央[yang]行[xing]与[yu]财[cai]政[zheng]部[bu]合[he]作[zuo]的[de]SPV等[deng]精[jing]准[zhun]滴[di]灌[guan]实[shi]体[ti]经[jing]济[ji]。


    念完所述,如今大伙儿搞清楚"[钱多多配资]解释央行维持利率不变超量续作7000亿元MLF不是进一步宽松信号"了吧?早已在上述文章领着大伙儿开展了详尽的掌握,坚信诸位在看了以后应该可以弄懂

    转载请注明来自,本文标题:央行维持利率不变超量续作7000亿元MLF不是进一步宽松信号
    本文地址:http://www.xjnews.net.cn/peizikaihu/5185.html

    标签: 钱多多配资

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