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      当前位置: 牛股配资网 > 股票公式指标 > 散户炒股正确率是50%吗?这套公式证明这是傻子观点!

      散户炒股正确率是50%吗?这套公式证明这是傻子观点!

      2020-04-18 0条评论

      有[you]一[yi]天[tian]小[xiao]明[ming]在[zai]路[lu]上[shang]碰[peng]到[dao]一[yi]个[ge]算[suan]命[ming]先[xian]生[sheng],其[qi]中[zhong]一[yi]位[wei]说[shuo]自[zi]己[ji]有[you]70%的[de]准[zhun]确[que]率[lv],另[ling]一[yi]位[wei]却[que]说[shuo]之[zhi]后[hou]20%的[de]准[zhun]确[que]率[lv],聪[cong]明[ming]小[xiao]明[ming]却[que]果[guo]决[jue]的[de]选[xuan]择[ze]后[hou]者[zhe]。这[zhe]个[ge]道[dao]理[li]大[da]家[jia]都[du]懂[dong],但[dan]能[nen]做[zuo]出[chu]小[xiao]明[ming]这[zhe]样[yang]的[de]举[ju]动[dong]的[de]人[ren]却[que]会[hui]比[bi]较[jiao]少[shao],如[ru]果[guo]再[zai]施[shi]之[zhi]于[yu]股[gu]市[shi]的[de]话[hua],那[na]就[jiu]更[geng]少[shao]了[liao]。接[jie]下[xia]来[lai]为[wei]大[da]家[jia]介[jie]绍[shao]"[股[gu]票[piao]均[jun]衡[heng]价[jia]格[ge]计[ji]算[suan]公[gong]式[shi]]教[jiao]妳[_]散[san]户[hu]炒[chao]股[gu]正[zheng]确[que]率[lv]是[shi]50%吗[ma]?这[zhe]套[tao]公[gong]式[shi]证[zheng]明[ming]这[zhe]是[shi]傻[sha]子[zi]观[guan]点[dian]!"不[bu]明[ming]白[bai]的[de]一[yi]起[qi]看[kan]看[kan]吧[ba]
      散[san]户[hu]炒[chao]股[gu]正[zheng]确[que]率[lv]是[shi]50%吗[ma]?这[zhe]套[tao]公[gong]式[shi]证[zheng]明[ming]这[zhe]是[shi]傻[sha]子[zi]观[guan]点[dian]!


      小[xiao]明[ming]为[wei]什[shi]么[me]选[xuan]择[ze]后[hou]者[zhe],因[yin]为[wei]以[yi]算[suan]命[ming]先[xian]生[sheng]说[shuo]的[de]话[hua]为[wei]反[fan]话[hua]时[shi],获[huo]得[de]准[zhun]确[que]率[lv]确[que]是[shi]80%了[liao]。炒[chao]股[gu]和[he]算[suan]命[ming]是[shi]一[yi]个[ge]道[dao]理[li],股[gu]民[min]不[bu]断[duan]的[de]在[zai]找[zhao]算[suan]命[ming]师[shi]或[huo]者[zhe]让[rang]自[zi]己[ji]成[cheng]为[wei]算[suan]命[ming]先[xian]生[sheng],而[er]且[qie]不[bu]断[duan]提[ti]高[gao]算[suan]准[zhun]的[de]概[gai]率[lv]。但[dan]这[zhe]个[ge]案[an]例[li]中[zhong]却[que]告[gao]诉[su]我[wo]们[men],炒[chao]股[gu]赚[zhuan]钱[qian]其[qi]实[shi]不[bu]一[yi]定[ding]准[zhun]确[que]率[lv]越[yue]高[gao]越[yue]好[hao]。看[kan]下[xia]面[mian]这[zhe]张[zhang]图[tu]。



      散[san]户[hu]的[de]准[zhun]确[que]率[lv]真[zhen]是[shi]50%吗[ma]?

      50%,这[zhe]是[shi]很[hen]明[ming]显[xian]的[de]事[shi]情[qing]嘛[ma],持[chi]有[you]这[zhe]种[zhong]思[si]路[lu]的[de]人[ren]观[guan]点[dian]证[zheng]据[ju]很[hen]简[jian]单[dan]有[you]利[li]——扔[reng]硬[ying]币[bi],扔[reng]到[dao]正[zheng]面[mian]就[jiu]买[mai],扔[reng]到[dao]反[fan]面[mian]就[jiu]卖[mai]。是[shi]这[zhe]样[yang]的[de]吗[ma]?


      计[ji]算[suan]方[fang]法[fa]一[yi]


      我[wo]们[men]来[lai]设[she]想[xiang]一[yi]个[ge]例[li]子[zi]:有[you]10个[ge]人[ren],其[qi]中[zhong]有[you]两[liang]个[ge]高[gao]手[shou],其[qi]他[ta]都[du]是[shi]平[ping]常[chang]人[ren];他[ta]们[men]准[zhun]确[que]率[lv]100%。


      1、此[ci]时[shi],这[zhe]两[liang]位[wei]高[gao]手[shou],认[ren]为[wei]会[hui]涨[zhang],其[qi]他[ta]八[ba]个[ge]人[ren]不[bu]知[zhi]道[dao],扔[reng]色[se]子[zi],4个[ge]人[ren]看[kan]涨[zhang],4个[ge]人[ren]看[kan]跌[die]。


      2、那[na]么[me]也[ye]就[jiu]是[shi]说[shuo],有[you]4个[ge]人[ren]愿[yuan]意[yi]卖[mai]出[chu],6个[ge]人[ren]愿[yuan]意[yi]买[mai]入[ru],因[yin]此[ci]只[zhi]有[you]4个[ge]人[ren]能[nen]买[mai]到[dao],没[mei]人[ren]买[mai]到[dao]的[de]概[gai]率[lv]是[shi]2/3。


      3、所[suo]以[yi]那[na]些[xie]扔[reng]色[se]子[zi]的[de]8个[ge]人[ren],4个[ge]卖[mai]出[chu]了[liao],8/3个[ge]人[ren]买[mai]到[dao]了[liao]。正[zheng]确[que]率[lv]多[duo]少[shao]?


      8/3(4+8/3)=40%,还[huai]会[hui]是[shi]50%吗[ma]?


      计[ji]算[suan]方[fang]法[fa]二[er]


      我[wo]们[men]再[zai]换[huan]一[yi]种[zhong]思[si]路[lu]:有[you]1000个[ge]人[ren],其[qi]中[zhong]有[you]200个[ge]高[gao]手[shou]是[shi]100%准[zhun]确[que]的[de],其[qi]余[yu]人[ren]都[du]是[shi]扔[reng]色[se]子[zi]来[lai]炒[chao]股[gu](我[wo]们[men]称[chen]这[zhe]些[xie]人[ren]为[wei]散[san]户[hu]),假[jia]如[ru]股[gu]价[jia]还[huai]一[yi]直[zhi]会[hui]涨[zhang].


      1、此[ci]时[shi]仍[reng]然[ran]200个[ge]高[gao]手[shou]肯[ken]定[ding]都[du]看[kan]涨[zhang],其[qi]余[yu]400个[ge]人[ren]看[kan]涨[zhang],400个[ge]人[ren]看[kan]跌[die]。此[ci]时[shi]市[shi]场[chang]对[dui]比[bi]——买[mai]:600人[ren],卖[mai]400人[ren]。价[jia]格[ge]会[hui]到[dao]更[geng]高[gao]的[de]价[jia]位[wei]去[qu],假[jia]如[ru]是[shi]12元[yuan]。


      2、当[dang]价[jia]格[ge]涨[zhang]到[dao]下[xia]一[yi]个[ge]价[jia]位[wei]时[shi],10块[kuai]都[du]愿[yuan]意[yi]卖[mai]的[de]散[san]户[hu],12块[kuai]钱[qian]必[bi]定[ding]更[geng]愿[yuan]意[yi]卖[mai],而[er]原[yuan]本[ben]选[xuan]择[ze]买[mai]的[de]400个[ge]散[san]户[hu],此[ci]时[shi]扔[reng]色[se]子[zi],又[you]是[shi]200人[ren]买[mai股票均衡价格计算公式],200人[ren]卖[mai],此[ci]时[shi]市[shi]场[chang]对[dui]比[bi]——买[mai]:400人[ren],卖[mai]600人[ren]。价[jia]格[ge]又[you]跌[die]回[hui]来[lai],假[jia]如[ru]到[dao]达[da]11元[yuan]。


      3、当[dang]价[jia]格[ge]跌[die]到[dao]11元[yuan]时[shi],在[zai]10元[yuan]时[shi]愿[yuan]意[yi]卖[mai]的[de]400人[ren]仍[reng]然[ran]坚[jian]定[ding]的[de]卖[mai]出[chu]肯[ken]定[ding]还[huai]是[shi]坚[jian]定[ding]卖[mai]出[chu],12元[yuan]愿[yuan]意[yi]买[mai]入[ru]的[de]400人[ren]还[huai]是[shi股票均衡价格计算公式]坚[jian]定[ding]买[mai]入[ru],其[qi]余[yu]的[de]200人[ren]扔[reng]色[se]子[zi],最[zui]终[zhong],100人[ren]买[mai],100人[ren]卖[mai],以[yi]至[zhi]于[yu]成[cheng]交[jiao]。


      上[shang]面[mian]三[san]段[duan]话[hua],没[mei]看[kan]懂[dong]的[de]请[qing]看[kan]下[xia]面[mian]这[zhe]种[zhong]图[tu]表[biao]。



      所[suo]以[yi]我[wo]们[men]最[zui]终[zhong]的[de]结[jie]果[guo]是[shi]800人[ren]中[zhong]的[de]散[san]户[hu],有[you]500人[ren]卖[mai],300人[ren]买[mai],当[dang]股[gu]价[jia]涨[zhang]到[dao]20元[yuan]时[shi],500人[ren]错[cuo]了[liao],300人[ren]对[dui]了[liao],平[ping]均[jun]的[de]准[zhun]确[que]率[lv]只[zhi]有[you]300除[chu]800=37.5%准[zhun]确[que]率[lv]是[shi]50%吗[ma]?


      确[que]实[shi]不[bu]可[ke]能[nen]是[shi]50%,如[ru]果[guo]这[zhe]些[xie]人[ren]都[du]是[shi]50%,也[ye]就[jiu]是[shi]总[zong]体[ti]在[zai]一[yi]起[qi]是[shi]不[bu]赚[zhuan]不[bu]亏[kui]的[de],拿[na]高[gao]手[shou]们[men]赚[zhuan]谁[shui]的[de]钱[qian]呢[ne]?


      真[zhen]实[shi]的[de]公[gong]式[shi]


      计[ji]算[suan]方[fang]式[shi]1得[de]出[chu]的[de]公[gong]式[shi]:


      举[ju]例[li]:由[you]于[yu]有[you]高[gao]手[shou]存[cun]在[zai],所[suo]以[yi]正[zheng]确[que]的[de]人[ren]数[shu]肯[ken]定[ding]比[bi]错[cuo]误[wu]的[de]人[ren]数[shu]多[duo](例[li]如[ru]正[zheng]确[que]:错[cuo]误[wu]=560:440),这[zhe]样[yang]一[yi]来[lai],错[cuo]误[wu]的[de]440人[ren]全[quan]部[bu]获[huo]得[de]成[cheng]交[jiao],全[quan]部[bu]形[xing]成[cheng]错[cuo]误[wu]。而[er]正[zheng]确[que]的[de]人[ren]数[shu]中[zhong],却[que]也[ye]只[zhi]有[you]440人[ren]获[huo]得[de]成[cheng]交[jiao],获[huo]得[de]正[zheng]确[que]。


      所[suo]以[yi]我[wo]们[men]先[xian]假[jia]设[she]:


      【正[zhe股票均衡价格计算公式ng]确[que]:错[cuo]误[wu]=1:A(A<1)


      而[er]扔[reng]色[se]子[zi]的[de]人[ren]按[an]照[zhao]概[gai]率[lv]正[zheng]确[que]和[he]错[cuo]误[wu]是[shi]一[yi]样[yang]多[duo]的[de],假[jia]设[she]每[mei]边[bian]为[wei]B,


      所[suo]以[yi]交[jiao]易[yi]正[zheng]确[que]的[de]散[san]户[hu]=AB,而[er]交[jiao]易[yi]错[cuo]误[wu]的[de]散[san]户[hu]人[ren]数[shu]为[wei]B。】


      所[suo]以[yi]散[san]户[hu]们[men]的[de]人[ren]均[jun]正[zheng]确[que]率[lv]= AB(AB+B)= A/(1+A)


      由[you]于[yu]A<1,所[suo]以[yi]散[san]户[hu]们[men]的[de]正[zheng]确[que]率[lv]就[jiu]很[hen]显[xian]然[ran]小[xiao]于[yu]50%。


      得[de]到[dao]的[de]启[qi]示[shi]

      所[suo]以[yi]如[ru]果[guo]这[zhe]些[xie]人[ren],每[mei]次[ci]都[du]根[gen]据[ju]他[ta]们[men]结[jie]论[lun]相[xiang]反[fan]的[de]方[fang]向[xiang]去[qu]交[jiao]易[yi],不[bu]就[jiu]可[ke]以[yi]赚[zhuan]钱[qian]了[liao]吗[ma]?所[suo]以[yi]有[you]一[yi]种[zhong]理[li]论[lun]事[shi]实[shi]上[shang]很[hen]能[nen]对[dui]投[tou]资[zi]者[zhe]的[de]胃[wei]口[kou],也[ye]很[hen]适[shi]应[ying]当[dang]下[xia]的[de]投[tou]资[zi]环[huan]境[jing]。


      这[zhe]种[zhong]理[li]论[lun]就[jiu]是[shi]相[xiang]反[fan]意[yi]见[jian](相[xiang]反[fan])理[li]论[lun],这[zhe]种[zhong]理[li]论[lun],事[shi]实[shi]上[shang]是[shi]站[zhan]在[zai]主[zhu]力[li]庄[zhuang]家[jia]一[yi]边[bian]的[de],当[dang]散[san]户[hu]们[men]斗[dou]不[bu]过[guo]主[zhu]力[li]庄[zhuang]家[jia],那[na]么[me]他[ta]们[men]也[ye]就[jiu]斗[dou]不[bu]过[guo]你[ni],导[dao]致[zhi]的[de]结[jie]果[guo]就[jiu]是[shi]散[san]户[hu]赔[pei]钱[qian],你[ni]赚[zhuan]钱[qian]。但[dan]相[xiang]反[fan]意[yi]见[jian]理[li]论[lun],并[bing]不[bu]是[shi]简[jian]单[dan]的[de]反[fan]着[zhou]自[zi]己[ji]的[de]观[guan]念[nian]来[lai]。我[wo]们[men]将[jiang]会[hui]在[zai]今[jin]天[tian]的[de]下[xia]一[yi]篇[pian]文[wen]章[zhang]中[zhong]推[tui]出[chu]来[lai]。



      推[tui]荐[jian]阅[yue]读[du]:

      买[mai]到[dao]“塔[ta]形[xing]底[di]”形[xing]态[tai]股[gu]票[piao],没[mei]涨[zhang]30%不[bu]要[yao]放[fang]手[shou]



      有[you]关[guan]股[gu]市[shi]复[fu]盘[pan]•选[xuan]股[gu]•进[jin]步[bu]等[deng]方[fang]面[mian]的[de]更[geng]多[duo]了[liao]解[jie],欢[huan]迎[ying]大[da]家[jia]关[guan]注[zhu]我[wo]们[men]的[de]微[wei]信[xin]公[gong]众[zhong]号[hao]:牛[niu]散[san]学[xue]吧[ba](niusan998)。市[shi]场[chang]从[cong]来[lai]都[du]是[shi]明[ming]白[bai]人[ren]挣[zheng]糊[hu]涂[tu]人[ren]的[de]钱[qian],一[yi]起[qi]来[lai]做[zuo]一[yi]个[ge]市[shi]场[chang]的[de]明[ming]白[bai]人[ren]吧[ba]。除[chu]此[ci]之[zhi]外[wai],我[wo]们[men]还[huai]专[zhuan]门[men]推[tui]出[chu]《北[bei]斗[dou]七[qi]星[xing]战[zhan]法[fa]之[zhi]K线[xian]盘[pan]态[tai]擒[qin]庄[zhuang]股[gu]》技[ji]术[shu]教[jiao]学[xue]书[shu]籍[ji],与[yu]您[nin]分[fen]享[xiang]我[wo]所[suo]了[liao]解[jie]的[de]庄[zhuang]家[jia]丑[chou]陋[lou]面[mian]目[mu]。



      读完上述,同学们应该清楚"[股票均衡价格计算公式]教妳散户炒股正确率是50%吗?这套公式证明这是傻子观点!"了吧?早已在上述文章专门教了大伙儿,坚信诸位看了以后应该可以作出恰当挑选的

      转载请注明来自,本文标题:散户炒股正确率是50%吗?这套公式证明这是傻子观点!
      本文地址:http://www.xjnews.net.cn/gupiaogongshizhibiao/1381.html

      标签: 股票均衡价格计算公式

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